Additional quote in that discussion thread, by someone else:
I think this is probably an offshoot of a general principle in social psychology that we all think people agree with us on things at a much higher rate than they actually do.
Here is one way it’s studied: in a large group of people, I ask them to answer questions on their preferences and opinions about issues (e.g., cake vs. pie, whether you agree that marijuana should be legal for recreational use) AND I ask them to estimate what percent of the group would agree with them on the question. So I have the actual percent of the group that agrees with whatever position and I have their estimates of what the group’s percent agreement will be.
Very consistently, the results are that people overestimate the percent of the group that agrees with them. Like if the cake vs. pie split is 50/50, but the cake people and the pie people both believe overall that 75% of the group would agree with their preference. (E.g., I like pie and I figure 75% of the people would also choose pie, but it turns out that it’s only 50%).
This even works as a demonstration in lectures, when the people can see all the other members of the group.
no subject
I think this is probably an offshoot of a general principle in social psychology that we all think people agree with us on things at a much higher rate than they actually do.
Here is one way it’s studied: in a large group of people, I ask them to answer questions on their preferences and opinions about issues (e.g., cake vs. pie, whether you agree that marijuana should be legal for recreational use) AND I ask them to estimate what percent of the group would agree with them on the question. So I have the actual percent of the group that agrees with whatever position and I have their estimates of what the group’s percent agreement will be.
Very consistently, the results are that people overestimate the percent of the group that agrees with them. Like if the cake vs. pie split is 50/50, but the cake people and the pie people both believe overall that 75% of the group would agree with their preference. (E.g., I like pie and I figure 75% of the people would also choose pie, but it turns out that it’s only 50%).
This even works as a demonstration in lectures, when the people can see all the other members of the group.