Time of the megafires
Aug. 1st, 2023 10:23 amSo fifteen years ago I sat in on a presentation for some fire predictions for the boreal and sub-boreal. They were using the term "mega-fires" and speaking to the fact that no matter what forest management we did there was no model that didn't involve really large fires in the future, say 20 years.
Today we got a technical update around mega-fires, which pretty much started in 2017 up here, around "we knew they were coming and they're now here to stay" and we kinda know they'll be getting bigger. We're also not able to expect the June lull regularly. Lots of talk in land management around controlled/introduced burns, including post-harvest burning and seasonal burning. I think it's realistic how they're skipping over seasonal burning, almost, in favour of full-on anchor burning, because the fire behaviour doesn't really reduce as much in some of the seasonally-burned landscapes anymore. The 2-4C we're expecting in climate increase in the next 25 years here will make a difference, as has the past increase.
1.52 million ha burned so far in BC, that's coming up on 1% of our land area I think? we're expecting 2 more months of fire season. So far it's had impact on fewer people because it's been in unpopulated areas, because Donnie Creek is a pretty intense fire, but it may well start moving down south.
The rain we've had hasn't been enough to increase streamflow, so they're saying it probably won't do much except give us some days of safer firefighting.
I'm still of the personal belief that we'll get a very significant shift from forest, especially conifer forest, to grassland and savannah, especially aspen savannah with trees that can resprout from roots. Though my understanding is that aspen doesn't have good seed survival in hot/dry situations, so it may drop out if it's not able to recombine/evolve quickly enough. Hopefully the little black spruce bogs dotting the landscape will remain to some degree. Super hopefully we have grasses that can sequester carbon in the soil, and that make some soil since we don't have much. I kind of wonder if we should be working on climate migration for grasses? I know so little about prairie ecosystems though.
At work, as of two weeks ago, my own office had given 28 person-weeks and 8 trucks (plus trucks taken by the individuals on those person-weeks) to firefighting over 2 months. So work was half-staffed previous to the fires, now we're at maybe 1/4 staff. Then, once the fires are over, we start on habitat restoration.
In addition to provincial full-time staff and loaner staff, here were 3 international incident teams (2 australian, 1 from mexico) just in my little corner of the district, I think we now have 1 aussie team and possibly the first brazilian team ever?
It's interesting to see how fast it's all normalized. I knew water was going to be big on the radar, I think I didn't realize how much fire would shift my actual work?
Anyhow, just thoughts after a briefing. The brainstem is much happier with clearer air and a little rain.
Today we got a technical update around mega-fires, which pretty much started in 2017 up here, around "we knew they were coming and they're now here to stay" and we kinda know they'll be getting bigger. We're also not able to expect the June lull regularly. Lots of talk in land management around controlled/introduced burns, including post-harvest burning and seasonal burning. I think it's realistic how they're skipping over seasonal burning, almost, in favour of full-on anchor burning, because the fire behaviour doesn't really reduce as much in some of the seasonally-burned landscapes anymore. The 2-4C we're expecting in climate increase in the next 25 years here will make a difference, as has the past increase.
1.52 million ha burned so far in BC, that's coming up on 1% of our land area I think? we're expecting 2 more months of fire season. So far it's had impact on fewer people because it's been in unpopulated areas, because Donnie Creek is a pretty intense fire, but it may well start moving down south.
The rain we've had hasn't been enough to increase streamflow, so they're saying it probably won't do much except give us some days of safer firefighting.
I'm still of the personal belief that we'll get a very significant shift from forest, especially conifer forest, to grassland and savannah, especially aspen savannah with trees that can resprout from roots. Though my understanding is that aspen doesn't have good seed survival in hot/dry situations, so it may drop out if it's not able to recombine/evolve quickly enough. Hopefully the little black spruce bogs dotting the landscape will remain to some degree. Super hopefully we have grasses that can sequester carbon in the soil, and that make some soil since we don't have much. I kind of wonder if we should be working on climate migration for grasses? I know so little about prairie ecosystems though.
At work, as of two weeks ago, my own office had given 28 person-weeks and 8 trucks (plus trucks taken by the individuals on those person-weeks) to firefighting over 2 months. So work was half-staffed previous to the fires, now we're at maybe 1/4 staff. Then, once the fires are over, we start on habitat restoration.
In addition to provincial full-time staff and loaner staff, here were 3 international incident teams (2 australian, 1 from mexico) just in my little corner of the district, I think we now have 1 aussie team and possibly the first brazilian team ever?
It's interesting to see how fast it's all normalized. I knew water was going to be big on the radar, I think I didn't realize how much fire would shift my actual work?
Anyhow, just thoughts after a briefing. The brainstem is much happier with clearer air and a little rain.